총평
물가상승률이 과거보다는 내려갔지만 아직 장기목표(2%)에는 미치지 않고 있다. 올해 금리를 내릴 수도 있다고 말하지만 회의 참여자들이 물가가 잡히고 있다는 확신을 가지고 있는 것 같지는 않다.
물가상승률
물가상승률이 전반적으로 내려가고 있지만 2퍼센트 목표에는 아직 도달하지 않았다.
Labor market conditions remained strong in recent months. Consumer price inflation—as measured by the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—continued to trend down, though it remained above 2 percent.
Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2 percent.
금리 인하 가능성
2026년 정도에는 물가상승률이 장기목표에 도달할 것으로 보고 있고 올해 안에 금리를 내릴 수도 있다는 말이 있다. 하지만 물가가 잡힐 것이라고 기대하고 섣불리 금리를 내렸다가 지금까지 노력했던 일들이 소용없게 되어버리는 경우를 경계하고 있다.
In discussing the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle, and almost all participants judged that it would be appropriate to move policy to a less restrictive stance at some point this year if the economy evolved broadly as they expected.
Total and core PCE price inflation were both projected to edge down in 2024, ending the year around 2-1/2 percent, as demand and supply in product and labor markets continued to move into better balance. By 2026, total and core PCE price inflation were expected to be close to 2 percent.
They remarked that it was important to weigh the risks of maintaining a restrictive stance for too long, which could unduly weaken economic activity and employment, against the risks of easing policy too quickly, which could stall or even reverse progress in returning inflation to the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
Members concurred that, in considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, they would carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Members agreed that they did not expect that it would be appropriate to reduce the target range until they have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
금리 동결
In support of the Committee's goals to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run, members agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
기타
최근 인공지능 개발에 필요한 GPU에 대한 수요가 많다. 대만의 TSMC가 기록적인 매출을 올리는 것에 대한 이야기라고 생각한다. 대한민국의 삼성도 포함이 되는지는 모르겠다.
On the other hand, some economies in emerging Asia performed well, in part reflecting strong demand for leading-edge semiconductors.
Participants noted the importance of continuing to communicate clearly the Committee's data-dependent approach in formulating monetary policy and the strong commitment to achieve its dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability.